There is a great business axiom made famous by Peter Drucker which is quoted as saying, “You cannot manage what you cannot measure.” Basically what Drucker is saying is that by not collecting data and looking at the results, no adjustments can be made to correct the ship or maintain course stability. The only way to apply this axiom is to have a clear goal or guiding principle. For young Vinicius Jr., that guideline came from his manager. After the match against Levante, Carlo Ancelotti revealed the new direction of the Brazilian:
“Vinicius is very good in individual situations. As for scoring goals, I told him that it is rare to score after five or six touches. To score, you need one touch or maybe two at most. You have to be in the box.”
Were Ancelotti’s words correct? Data from PremierLeague.com revealed that 88% of goals scored last season (2020-2021) were scored inside the penalty area. In a comparative study of La Liga, EPL, MLS and Serie A goals from 2004 to 2009, 82% of the goals were scored inside the penalty area. A similar study by Tony Carr, former director of the West Ham Youth Academy, also found that 82% of goals were scored inside the penalty area and 94% of goals were scored with two touches or less. During Euro 2012, The Sports Journal found that 90% of goals scored were inside the penalty area, especially from the penalty point to the goal line. Ancelotti’s words are correct: the majority of goals are scored inside the penalty area.
Flashforward One month later, Vini scored four goals in four La Liga matches, already equaling his highest goal total in an entire season. All four goals were scored in the penalty area. All four goals, once in the penalty area, have been scored with two touches or less. It is as if the light bulb has gone out.
The goals came as a byproduct of the important changes in the Vinicius match. Only last season, Vinicius’ reimbursement amount increased. He averages (+2) more shots per match and averages (~+2.5) more shots on target per match. He’s reduced his shot yards by (-2.6) yards from last season and (-6.3) yards since the 2018-19 season when he first exploded. The closer you get to the goal, the higher your chances of scoring. More shots, more shots on target and closer to the target = higher probability of goals. The Brazilian 90 xG without penalty is a tempting 0.76 – a number that will likely go down, but if the above measurements are in shots and distance, you won’t be far.
FBREF data (Statsbomb) | Imagine Mehdi Hassan
FBREF data (Statsbomb) | Imagine Mehdi Hassan
Not only did the Brazilian’s shots improve, but his positioning as well. He starts at the top of the field, positions himself on the opponent’s baseline, and is ready to ignite the transition. Fbref’s data shows that Vinicius is pressing half of what he was last season, rather than conserving that energy to counterattack. He scored 7 extra touchdowns in the final third per game (+21% compared to last year) and received +1 more progressive assists in the final third than last season.
* All stats are given based on 90 per Fbref (Statsbomb)
FBREF data (Statsbomb) | Imagine Mehdi Hassan
Minor tweaks to his playing methods coupled with the work done during the off-season to prepare his body, and the mental work done with a psychologist as well as his coaches at Real Madrid, mean Vinicius has finally found the ingredients to put an end to it. Misfortunes while scoring goals. . Opposition teams will be wary. A tracing report came out. Systems will be put in place to defend against Vinicius and mitigate his impact. Improvisation in the game is often necessary, but keeping these guidelines – such as limited touches in the penalty area and shots close to goal – will help the 21-year-old stay on track. The Brazilian has always been the X Factor, and now his unique skills along with the final product can take him to a new level as one of the best players in the world.
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